Why Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.
The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.