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This surely should not go on. It makes no rational sense for it to persist. And yet, it does.

A Historic Victory Defying Expectations

The Claret and Blue army arrived at the weekend's Premier League clash at Chelsea aiming for a historic record of eleven consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in 1897 and 1914. For much of the match, this feat seemed improbable, as Chelsea controlled proceedings, secured the lead, and might have added several more. But, Chelsea have shown frailty with a lead, particularly at home, while Villa have cultivated a baffling habit of securing away victories from losing positions.

First, Ollie Watkins equalised, the ball ricocheting in off his leg and the post following his first effort was blocked by Robert Sánchez. Later on, he secured the decisive goal with a precise header. These were just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. Watkins might feel some fortune was due, and there's no question the first goal had a large slice of good fortune. Currently, though, Lady Luck is favoring Villa.

The Numbers Of an Unlikely Streak

The last nine of these 11 straight wins were by a single goal. They have kept a clean sheet in just one of those matches. Their expected goals (xG) have been better in only six of those fixtures, and in two of those, the margin was minimal. Their last five away Premier League victories have all come from behind. This pattern should not, yet observers have been claiming that for weeks, and Villa keep on winning. The central question is whether their outcomes will eventually match their performances or if their performances can improve to match the results.

This should not be possible, but everyone has been saying that for a while and Villa continue winning.

A Defining Trait: Belief

Coming from behind is not merely a feature of this season. Over the past 3 seasons, no team has won more points when trailing than Villa's fifty-four; 18 of those have been secured this term, 50% more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have contributed nine goals. Two key observations can be made about Villa under their manager.

• Firstly, they possess a deep-rooted self-belief that means no game ever feels beyond them. This is, in part, self-perpetuating: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they believe they can do it again.
• Second, Emery has proven very skilled at influencing games through his use of the bench.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea had the better of the xG battle 2.1 to 1.4, Villa became dominant from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple change. Watkins came on for Donyell Malen, who had found it difficult with limited service. Immediately, the ball began to stick, and Watkins's movement in behind caused problems. Amadou Onana and Jadon Sancho also entered, strengthening the center and providing the width they had eschewed earlier.

Chelsea had 10 shots to Villa's none before the substitutions; following them, Villa had 11 chances to Chelsea's 4. By the end, Villa were in control and could easily have won by a greater margin. Once again, opposing manager Enzo Maresca seemed unable to react as the game turned against him; the impression remains that he is more proficient at implementing a game plan with time to prepare than making adjustments on the fly.

Moment of Magic

Villa have also developed a welcome habit of individuals producing pieces of match-winning quality to alter games. Morgan Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him shifting the ball onto his favored foot and whipping a finish home has become a recurring leitmotif. It was the winger who transformed the game from the bench at Leeds. The striker changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The contributions of defenders like Konsa and Lindelof on Saturday were key. Right now, it's seldom the whole side playing flawlessly, but enough players within it delivering to earn the victories.

The Road Ahead

Will they be able to maintain this run? They now sit three points behind the league leaders, and as the season approaches its halfway stage, they have to be considered as in the title race, certainly more so than teams like Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. Tuesday's away fixture at Arsenal will be a major test of that status. Villa beat Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only had better the xG but posted an xG forty percent higher than any other side has managed against Arsenal in the league this season.

The Gunners have assembled their own run of single-goal victories, winning three in a row without ever being wholly convincing. Tuesday will be a challenge for both teams – and if Villa secure a twelfth game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to deny their title credentials.