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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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