Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
