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"I'll remain in this position by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer declared, joking that if our discussion went well, he might welcome the interviewer into Downing Street for another talk in the coming year.

There is never any time off for prime ministers. In the hour before the interview began, the PM had been on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to decipher exactly what had happened in Venezuela, where his big friend, US President Donald Trump, had just targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time the discussion, which was much longer than usual, had ended, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

As the year commences, Sir Keir seems to have had a kind of a reboot. Maybe even just some downtime with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.

That certainly appeared to have put him in a more positive mood than at the saggy tail end of 2025, a dreadful year politically for him.

Yet, are he and his supporters kidding themselves if they reckon his fortunes are poised to improve?

Party Concerns

The harsh reality for the PM is that a significant number of his colleagues are convinced he's ineffective at his job. A faction of them would sooner take a risk and get him out this year.

However Sir Keir was dismissing such talk during our conversation on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he insisted he'd be "judged at the next election", maintaining no one would strip his electoral mandate from him – even if the best chance of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 could be for Labour to replace leader.

"This is the battle of our times and I plan to be at the forefront," he declared.

The Spring Test

The problem for the PM is that he will be assessed well ahead of then – in a mega set of elections in May across the UK. He tried to contend, maybe excessively, that they are about who runs local authorities, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

True – to some extent. But even though he may not want to acknowledge it, No 10 will be held accountable by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir implying that there were no scenario under which he would resign, even if one of his colleagues ran against him for the job, if those elections prove catastrophic for Labour.

An Optimistic Outlook

He attempted to explain his unpopularity by saying the public was reasonably eager for things to change. He sought to persuade me, and the public, that 2026 would be different.

The economy would recover in the face of rising unemployment, he argued, when plans the administration enacted during their initial turbulent year began to show results.

• He committed to shut asylum hotels ahead of the current target date of 2029, although he did not put a firm date on that.
• He noted too, with the qualification that it wasn't a done deal, that a settlement in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any point since Russia's full-scale invasion.
• He disclosed for the first occasion that Western partners were now considering how to coordinate US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to protect a potential peace.

His core message is that this year the country will "turn the corner".

Political Challenges

The prime minister may have spoken with greater vigour than observed from him for a while – less tense, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite encountering pressure from various quarters for a bolder strategy, with much more political direction, more vigour, more pace and more urgency, his explanations were well-known ones.

When he finds himself in this much political difficulty, does he need a new narrative?

No government, and certainly not one that has been unpopular for an extended period, has everything its own way.

The Prime Minister's challenges are not just because government is difficult, but because he and his colleagues have made mistakes, even in the recent past.

Controversies and Dangers

The PM admitted that he was sorry for saying he was "delighted" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an backlash when statements he'd previously made – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Starmer attributed it to "procedures" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is inviting evident political perils as the year gets going. His friendship with the US president acquires a new jeopardy after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over his career, the notion he would be comfortable with such action seems unlikely.

International Law and Brexit

He asserted he was a "longtime advocate of international law" but the public "simply lack the complete details at the moment".

Opponents called for him to condemn it before the interview. And the administration is likely to face more pressure to give an clear view in Parliament in the near future.

There has also consistently been simmering desire in the Labour party to revisit some of the results of Brexit.

The PM denies he's doing that, but his new specific plan to align more closely with the single market – the vast economic European trading zone – will probably trigger accusations that he is reneging on his vow never to try to undo the choices that followed Brexit.

A decision to integrate into more of the single market will satisfy a faction on his side of the party, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to